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18 ups and downs, 5 dips, 34 days of "mask first share"

2020-03-25 14:27:28 admin 0

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One


"There is no faucet that does not fall." A few days ago, after clearing his position in dawn (002838. SZ), Liu Chuan dropped this sentence in a stock group of more than 100 people.




In the past month and a half, this small and medium-sized board stock has been attracting and stimulating investors. Between frequent changes of hands, people who entered the low post earlier may have made a lot of money, but many investors who chased the price to enter may still shiver at the top of the mountain.




At 15 o'clock on March 19, dawn shares fell and closed again. On the disk, the K-line trend all day is like a lifeless ECG, and the mask concept plate is also a wail.




In recent days before the downturn, dawn shares just staged a wave of soaring market. On January 23, the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the closing price of dawn shares was 11.46 yuan. In the whole January before that, its highest share price was only 12.4 yuan. On February 3, the A-share market reopened under the extreme panic. On that day, more than 3200 stocks fell and stopped in the two cities. However, the epidemic prevention concept stock rose against the trend, and dawn stock quickly became a star and began its dazzling way.




As of the closing on March 19, in the 34 trading days since the festival, the stock has gained 18 trading limits, and its share price hit a peak of 62.5 yuan on March 10, up 309% from the issue price when it was listed in 2017. In the spreading speculation atmosphere, the price earnings ratio of dawn shares was 23 times from then on, once more than 140 times.




In the same period, the trading day of dawn shares with an amplitude of more than 10% has 10 days, which means the market is very volatile. Despite seven announcements of abnormal stock movements, the popularity of the star company remains undiminished.




The rich and the rich are in danger.




Liu Chuan specially set up a stock group of dao'en shares, in which he constantly shared information and provided operation suggestions to the group members. Before the outbreak, dawn shares and its plastic products industry were not as hot as they were recently. As of the end of the third quarter of last year, the number of shareholders was only 7005. However, due to the business involving mask manufacturing, the popularity of dawn shares in the A-share market has risen rapidly.




Stock bar has become very lively, envious, skeptical and wait-and-see shareholders, almost every day after hours are constantly posting discussions. "I bought it for about 38 yuan, but I sold it in a week. I'm afraid it's too high to take it." One shareholder told "business people.".




The painting style of burning oil changed on March 10. Although the share price reached its highest level since the beginning of the year, dawn shares unexpectedly fell and stopped on the same day. In the next few trading days, the stock turned down, and fell several times. According to the closing price on March 9, as of March 19, its share price has dropped by 35%, and its circulation market value has evaporated by nearly 7 billion yuan. However, at the time of the sharp correction, the shares of dawn still occasionally rebounded under the flood of hot money - it is the torture brought by this kind of shock that makes it become the torture of many investors whether to keep holding or to cut off the market.




Liu Chuan, who has sold down Dow shares, turned his attention to other sectors. While some people in the stock group are regretful from time to time, saying that they failed to sell the stop loss in time; some investors who entered the market near 62 yuan, or can only continue to be helpless to "stand guard" in place.

Dawn Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002. Its main products are thermoplastic elastomer, modified plastics and masterbatch, which are mainly used in automobile industry, home appliances, medical and health fields. In January 2017, the chemical manufacturer, located in Longkou City in the north of Shandong Peninsula, was listed on the small and medium-sized board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange.




Mr. and Mrs. Yu Xiaoning and Han Limei, the actual controllers of dawn shares, started from a small shopping mall with only a few people founded in 1991, and now they have been listed on the national rich list. According to the 2019 Hurun rich list, they ranked 1148 with 3.6 billion yuan of wealth, while the dawn group, which is owned by dawn, ranked 424 on the top 500 of Chinese private enterprises with 20.9 billion yuan of operating revenue last year, and 58th in the province.




Yu Xiaoning has many titles, not only as a deputy of Shandong Provincial People's Congress, but also as the vice president of China synthetic resin supply and Marketing Association, the vice president of Yantai Federation of industry and Commerce and the president of Yantai Federation of industry and Commerce rubber plastic chamber of Commerce.




Dawn shares is in a very small industry. In the capital market, this lack of imagination space, the concept of speculation value is not high stocks, not very eye-catching. In the past year, the share price of dawn shares has been hovering within 20 yuan for a long time, which is quite calm. On January 18 this year, Yu Xiaoning also attended the Shandong Provincial People's Congress. It wasn't until a few days later that the epidemic broke out in a large area that this low-key manufacturer, who occupies a key link in the mask industry chain, was quickly exposed in front of the market.




Medical masks are usually composed of three layers, the inner and outer layers are non-woven, and the most critical middle layer is melt blown cloth, which plays the role of filtering, shielding and heat insulation. In the past, the domestic production of melt blown cloth was very low. In 2018, the national output was only 53500 tons, with a daily output of about 180 tons. In addition to masks, these meltblown fabrics are also used in environmental protection materials, battery diaphragms and clothing materials. In addition, due to the high cost of the melt blown cloth production equipment and the long commissioning period of the production line (generally 3-5 months), compared with the number of downstream mask manufacturers, there are not many domestic melt blown cloth manufacturers.




This directly leads to the current market shortage of melt blown cloth. Its price rose from about 20000 yuan per ton before the outbreak to 450000 yuan at one time. Even though the industry has been adjusted, according to the latest data of Longzhong information, the spot price of melt blown cloth is still tight, and the high price is still around 300000 yuan / ton.




When the situation was tense, dawn shares began to be popular.




As a producer of melt blown cloth material, polypropylene melt blown special material, dawn's market share is said to be as high as 40%. In an interview with China entrepreneur, Yu Xiaoning said that in the past, the company's daily orders for melt blown materials were only about 100 tons, but after the end of January, the orders increased sharply, which has seriously exceeded the production capacity of dawn. He had to split the equipment of other products and expand the original 8 production lines to 21, all of which were used to produce melt blown materials. According to a local newspaper in Longkou, Yu also asked for help from the relevant leaders of CNPC sales to increase the purchase of raw materials for 1300 tons of melt blown materials to solve the production pressure.

Three


A broker who investigated dao'en stock last year told "business people" that before Sinopec's recent involvement in the production of melt blown materials, dao'en stock was the absolute industry leader. "Sinopec is a" national task "this time, which is not bad for dao'en and helps the industry to be more standardized. In fact, the main focus of dawn is the thermoplastic elastomer business. This time, it's a mistake to stir up the modified plastic business (such as melt blown material business) that didn't make much money. "




Financial data show that melt blown materials are not the main source of revenue for dawn shares indeed - its sales revenue only accounted for about 20% of the total revenue last year. On March 10, the day before the sharp fall, dawn shares issued a notice to the market "early warning", saying that the proportion of melt blown materials in revenue is not high, while other major products are also suffering from the impact of the epidemic.




"When I paid attention to this company, its valuation was not expensive. Its market value was only about 3 billion, and its performance was more than one billion. At that time, I felt that it had a good growth, so I kept looking at it. " Memories of the above brokers. In the current turbulent market, the total market value of dawn shares has exceeded 16 billion yuan. In the center of the epidemic, in the hype, this mask concept stock is not the same now.




There is no doubt that Yu Xiaoning and Han Limei are experiencing the baptism of wealth. At present, Yu Xiaoning indirectly holds 48.51% of the shares of dao'en through dao'en group, while Han Limei holds 21.08% of the shares. The two together hold nearly 70% of the shares. Based on the closing price of the last trading day before the festival, the total market value of its shares is about 3.2 billion yuan. According to the stage high of 62.5 yuan, the wealth of Yu Xiaoning and his wife has soared to 17.5 billion yuan. But as share prices continue to fall, this attractive round of paper wealth is shrinking.